Windows to outpace Mac/iOS through 2015, as Android’s lead reaches 1 billion units

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The lines between PCs, notebooks, tablets and smartphones are getting blurrier by the day, which makes a new forecast from Gartner especially noteworthy.

As part of its updated global device shipment projections, released this morning, the research firm gave its expectations for overall growth of Android, Mac/iOS and Windows shipments across all major types of devices through the end of next year.

The summary: Android is expected to see 1.37 billion device shipments in 2015, with Windows coming in a distant second at 374 million, followed by Apple’s combined Mac and iOS shipments of 301 million.

Yes, if you’re keeping score at home, that projection translates into a 1-billion unit lead for the Google-backed mobile operating system next year.

The bulk of Windows shipments will continue to come from traditional PCs, including desktop and notebook computers. Gartner says the PC market is expected to decline by 2.9 percent this year, which is considered a positive trend following the 9.5 decline last year.  Gartner says Windows Phone market share should reach 10 percent market share in 2018, up from 4 percent this year.

Here’s how Gartner sees things shaking out by device type, with phones and tablets leading the way …

gartner

  • Snarky Joe

    What are shipments? Is that when somebody makes something but we’re not sure if anyone wants to buy it?

  • guest

    They may be (in many cases) junk devices, but there are a LOT of them out there (android). Huge addressable market, where nobody pays for SW. If your business is selling advertising for brands in developing markets, or monetizing personal data, android is the place to be.

  • Walt French

    For somebody who’s kept score a bit better than I have: What OSs are running on those 2/3 of a billion of “Other” OSs? Are these AOSP (Android sans the ®) devices (that number would be about right), or something else?

    • guest

      blackberry os, linux, tizen, etc. etc.

      • Walt French

        I’m pretty sure Gartner is NOT forecasting 600+million BBs (they might sell 15million if they have a great comeback), Tizens or mobile “Linux”es. Any better ideas?

        • http://geekwire.com Todd Bishop

          Hi Walt — Good question. I’m going to try to get an answer for you from Gartner.

          • Walt French

            Great! And while you’re at it, I had no idea what distinction they were making with “premium” versus other tablets and hybrids. Examples of big-selling brands/products for each category (where not obvious) would help a lot.

      • guest

        Don’t forgot Xiaomi.

        • Guest

          That’s factored into the Android numbers my friend.

  • Victor V

    It’s alarming that mobile OS’s are being grouped with PC’s and Tablets. As far as I have observed within the Education industry and Business industry people still carry at least a Mobile phone and a Computer/ tablet. So why would a mobile OS be grouped into this? To make Android seem like a winning horse. I find this very hard to accept as non biased.

    • guest

      Alarming why? For people outside of the US/Europe (ie. the developing world), where more than half the population of the planet resides), it’s a desktop/replacement replacement. That’s not bias, that’s reality. MSFT missed this boat and it’s going to pay the price for decades (and I say this as a MSFT shareholder).

      • Victor V

        Well since I’m obviously in America I consider this report biased. Mobile phones should not be considered PCs or tablets. Main reason being, android has tried to enter this market with the chrome book and other Android tablets. If that was what was used to forecast sales, it would paint a true picture of how android is doing in the PC/tablet market. The phone market still is its own beast.
        On a side note windows phone is doing exponentially better in other markets other than the US. So your statement that they will pay for decades really makes no sense. Where they are having trouble penetrating is the US, not places like Mexico, France, UK.