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Analysts have been projecting sales numbers for Microsoft’s Surface and it isn’t looking good for the Redmond software giant.

UBS analyst Brent Thill cut his estimate for Surface sales in half to just 1 million units sold this holiday quarter. Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan analyst John DiFucci predicted just 700,000 units sold.

If the Surface was supposed to compete with the iPad, it sure isn’t looking like it. Apple is expected to sell 20 million iPads over the same time period.

But Thill says that the Surface Pro, which goes on sale later this month, is the “more promising model.”

We’ll find out the real numbers when Microsoft’s earnings are released. Even at 1 million units sold, that’s still around $500 million coming in this quarter for the company. Still, though, that’s likely not what Microsoft had hoped for.

Microsoft limited initial sales of the Surface to its 60 retail stores before allowing other retailers to sell the tablet early last month, which was earlier than expected.

Will 2013 bring more success for Microsoft’s tablet? Or will the new Surface flop? What do you think?

Previously on GeekWire: Is that a Surface under the tree? 6 tips for new Microsoft tablet owners

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