If 2022 was packed with headline-grabbing aerospace developments — including the first pictures from the James Webb Telescope and the first launch of NASA’s giant moon rocket — 2023 was what you might call a rebuilding year.
This year began with high hopes for aerospace companies with a significant presence in the Seattle area, ranging from Boeing to Blue Origin to SpaceX. A lot of those hopes had to be put on hold, basically because everything in the space industry takes longer than expected. Nevertheless, there were plenty of developments worthy of note in the aerospace world, including a milestone for the tech industry: the first launch for Amazon’s Project Kuiper satellite program.
To mark the transition from 2023 to 2024, I’m serving up my top five aerospace stories from the past year, plus the top five developments to watch for in the year ahead. If all goes according to plan, 2024 could be one of the biggest years since I started writing “Year in Space” roundups in 1997. But if there’s one thing that the past 26 years have taught me, it’s that all doesn’t go according to plan.
Looking back at 2023
Amazon’s first satellites go into orbit: Two prototype satellites for Amazon’s Project Kuiper, which aims to provide broadband internet service for millions of people around the world, were sent into space by United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V rocket in October.
The laser-equipped KuiperSats aced their orbital tests, and mass production of the satellites has begun at Kuiper’s HQ in Redmond, Wash. An Amazon spokesperson told me that manufacturing will make the transition to a factory in nearby Kirkland, Wash., during the first quarter of 2024. That should set the stage for satellite launches and the start of service tests by the end of next year.
The big question: Can Amazon’s Project Kuiper catch up with SpaceX’s Starlink network, which also relies on satellites built at a manufacturing complex in Redmond? And speaking of SpaceX…
SpaceX tries, tries again with Starship: The company founded by controversial tech leader Elon Musk conducted two test launches of its Starship / Super Heavy launch system in South Texas during 2023. Both tests fell short of complete success, but they marked significant progress toward proving out Starship as a juggernaut capable of putting scores of next-generation Starlink satellites in orbit at a time.
Once Starship is ready for prime time, that’ll smooth the way for SpaceX to provide satellite-to-mobile phone service via Starlink in partnership with T-Mobile. Starship’s successes will also reassure NASA that SpaceX’s lunar lander program is on track.
Airplanes get a lift from hydrogen: ZeroAvia and Universal Hydrogen both demonstrated hydrogen-powered propulsion systems for aircraft during 2023. Both aerospace companies have Washington state connections: ZeroAvia has a research and development facility in Everett, and is partnering with Seattle-based Alaska Airlines. Meanwhile, Everett-based MagniX is working with Universal Hydrogen on an electric propulsion system that was put to the test during March’s demonstration flight at Moses Lake, Wash.
NASA and the military get serious about UFOs: When a Chinese spy balloon flew over the U.S. in January, that set off alarm bells across the country, including in the halls of Congress and the Pentagon. The potential security threat from such intrusions led policymakers to pay more attention to reports of unidentified flying objects — now known as unidentified aerial phenomena or UAP. The Department of Defense set up a web portal for UAP reports, while an independent panel created by NASA issued its own set of recommendations for dealing with such reports.
NASA brings back an asteroid haul: After a years-long space odyssey, NASA’s OSIRIS-REx probe dropped off a capsule containing precious bits of material that were blasted away from a near-Earth asteroid. The sample is expected to provide fresh insights into the origins of the solar system, plus hints as to what resources could be gleaned from space rocks. One little problem: The mission team hasn’t yet managed to get the capsule completely open. Fortunately, scientists are able to study surplus material that was found outside the capsule.
Also notable: Stoke Space put a test rocket through a successful hop in Moses Lake, Wash., in September. … Tukwila, Wash.-based Starfish Space had its Otter Pup orbital tug launched in June to demonstrate a satellite rendezvous, but an in-space anomaly forced a change of plan. … Virgin Galactic resumed suborbital space trips, India put a robotic lander on the moon, and Firefly Aerospace acquired Bellevue, Wash.-based Spaceflight Inc.
Looking ahead to 2024
In addition to Amazon’s continued progress on Project Kuiper and SpaceX’s continued progress on Starship, here are five other aerospace developments worth watching for:
Will this be Blue Origin’s big year? Because of a launch anomaly in 2022, Blue Origin was grounded for nearly all of 2023. But Jeff Bezos’ space venture returned to flight last week with an uncrewed suborbital launch of its New Shepard rocket ship, and crewed flights seem likely to resume early next year. Bezos’ fiancée, Lauren Sanchez, says she’ll lead one of those flights, Also next year, launches of Blue Origin’s orbital-class New Glenn rocket are scheduled to begin, with a pair of Mars probes among the first payloads. Can Blue Origin stick to its schedule? That’s one of the top missions for the company’s new CEO, former Amazon executive Dave Limp.
Will there be a boom in supersonic flight? Faster-than-sound air travel seems to be making a comeback: During 2024, NASA is scheduled to test a super-quiet supersonic aircraft known as the X-59. Meanwhile, Boom Supersonic is conducting ground tests of its XB-1 demonstrator jet in Mojave, Calif. “We expect to fly XB-1 as soon as additional ground tests are safely and successfully completed,” Boom told GeekWire in an email. On a different front, Stratolaunch — the aerospace company founded by the late Seattle software billionaire and philanthropist Paul Allen — is preparing for the first flight of its Talon-A hypersonic test vehicle.
How many moon missions will get off the ground? Commercial robotic missions to the lunar surface is due to begin in January with the launch of Astrobotic’s Peregrine lander on United Launch Alliance’s first Vulcan rocket. (That mission will also mark the first use of Blue Origin’s BE-4 rocket engines on Vulcan.) NASA’s VIPER rover is due to reach the moon’s south polar region in late 2024 — and that’s also the time frame for NASA’s Artemis 2 mission, which involves sending four astronauts around the moon and back. Stay tuned to see whether the missions earmarked for “late 2024” are actually ready to go by the end of next year.
When will Boeing’s Starliner carry its first crew? The Starliner space taxi program got off the ground four years ago with an uncrewed test flight that fell short of its objectives, and it turned into a billion-dollar headache for Boeing. The current schedule calls for a crew of astronauts to give the fixed-up Starliner a test drive to the International Space Station in the April time frame — but that schedule could change, as it has several times before.
Will the solar eclipse live up to the hype? Six and a half years after the “Great American Eclipse” of 2017, another total solar eclipse will sweep across the U.S. on April 8. Fair warning: The weather outlook in early spring may not be quite as sunny as it was during the summer of 2017. Folks in the Pacific Northwest will have to go to the Southwest, Midwest or Northeast to experience full daytime darkness, but the partial phase will be visible from almost anywhere in North America. (Sorry, Alaska!) Just to be safe, grab some eclipse glasses before they’re gone.
Also notable: Axiom Space’s third commercial mission to the International Space Station is set for launch no earlier than Jan. 17. … Redmond, Wash.-based Xplore could have its first Xcraft multi-sensor satellite sent to Earth orbit as soon as March. … Polaris Dawn, a free-flying spacewalk mission funded by billionaire Jared Isaacman, is due for liftoff no earlier than April. … And NASA’s Europa Clipper is scheduled to begin its trip to a mysterious ice-covered moon of Jupiter this fall.
