Seattle real estate platform Redfin analyzed migration patterns of Americans in recent years and found high numbers of people moving into, rather than out of, areas at high risk of wildfires, floods and extreme heat. And these risks are predicted only to worsen as climate change continues.
What drives the migration: The analysis suggests that rising housing costs and a shortage of homes are luring people to areas that are affordable but also threatened by an increased likelihood for natural disasters.
“It’s human nature to focus on current benefits, like waterfront views or a low cost of living, over costs that could rack up in the long run, like property damage or a decrease in property value,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s deputy chief economist, in a press release.
The trend seems likely to continue. A separate Redfin analysis found that 55% of homes built so far this decade are in risky areas for wildfires.
Fewer than half of people who moved in the past year — some 48.7% — believe that fires, floods and higher temperatures will impact home values in their area within the coming decade.
For the analysis, Redfin focused on counties in the contiguous U.S. that ranked in the top 10% for flood and fire risk and the top 33% for heat risk. The data came from the First Street Foundation, which scores properties for climate-related risk. Migration data came from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage Population Estimates data.
Here’s some more data from the Redfin analysis:
Wildfires: Some 446,000 more people moved into areas at high risk for wildfires in 2021 and 2022 than moved out. That’s an increase of 51% compared to 2019 and 2020.
The biggest numbers were seen in Riverside County, Calif., home to Palm Springs and Riverside. Other popular spots were cities and towns in Arizona and Utah. Notable in-migration took place in central and eastern Washington as well.
People have, however, fled Butte County, Calif., where the 2018 Camp Fire devastated the town of Paradise, among other communities.
Floods: Rising waters proved even less of a deterrent than fires as counties more at risk of flooding saw a 103% increase in residents. About 384,000 more people moved in than out of flood-prone areas in 2021 and 2022.
The biggest concentration of in-migration was in Florida and on the Eastern seaboard. Flood-prone Louisiana, which has spiking insurance costs, lost residents.
High heat: Counties with peak heat risks drew the largest raw numbers, with 629,000 more people moving in than out in the past two years, a population increase of 17%.
Maricopa County, which contains Phoenix, set the in-migration record as its biggest city this summer has clocked 20 consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 110 degrees — with more in the forecast.
Other popular communities with high temperatures include parts of Florida and Texas.
