The Omicron COVID-19 variant is surging in the Seattle area with speed that has the potential to overload health care systems and disrupt workplaces, scientists and health officials said Friday at a media briefing.
Within one week the number of Omicron cases in King County is projected to soar to about three times the peak of the Delta wave in August, to more than 2,000 cases daily. Cases of COVID-19 in the county are up 50% since Thanksgiving.
“The Omicron outbreak we’ve been talking about is no longer theoretical, it’s real.” said King County health officer Jeffrey Duchin. “It’s here and it’s moving fast.”
About 37% of COVID-positive samples collected on Dec. 13 were positive for Omicron, according to data from the University of Washington’s virology lab. That’s up from 13% on Dec. 8. The lab analyzes about half of King County’s COVID-19 tests, UW researchers estimate, and also pulls some samples from the rest of the state.
Update, Dec. 18: Saturday data from UW virology showed Omicron present in about half of COVID-19 positive samples from Dec. 14 and 15. The bulk of the Omicron-containing samples were from King and Snohomish counties, but the lab has also detected Omicron in samples from some other counties.
The UW data was collected using a quick method that is not as foolproof as gold-standard genomic sequencing, but still has high accuracy.
“We don’t know exactly what case counts will be in January in King County and in the U.S., but I’m certain it will be the highest case counts we’ve seen throughout the pandemic,” said Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center scientist Trevor Bedford.
The fast-spreading variant is doubling about every 2.2 days in King County, similar to rates seen in other regions, according to Bedford. At that rate, there will be roughly 2,100 daily cases, and growing, of Omicron in the county on Dec. 22.
“Businesses and healthcare facilities should plan for the impact on their workforce,” said Duchin. He does not anticipate immediately changing any major public health requirements in the county. “But I think people should plan for large scale absenteeism. It’s best to be prepared than be taken by surprise,” he said.
The first case of Omicron likely arose in southern Africa around Oct. 1 said, Bedford. The variant is now soaring in Europe, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control says it may peak in the U.S. as soon as January.
Few regions have as thorough surveillance for variants as Washington. Bedford anticipates that spread in other cities, and then to rural areas, will also be rapid. “It looks like Seattle and King County are going to be a bit ahead of the curve in the US,” said Bedford.
Duchin urges people who have not yet been vaccinated to get their shots, and others to get a booster. The variant causes infections in a high proportion of vaccinated individuals, though he anticipates that vaccination will shield against severe disease in the majority of people. Boosters will provide additional protection.
Duchin also advises doubling down on other measures. These include ventilating rooms, limiting gatherings, getting tested and staying home when sick, and wearing a high quality mask, such as an N95.
“Avoid crowded indoor spaces during the holiday season. Limit the number of gatherings and when possible do a rapid test the day of the gathering.” He also said larger, well-ventilated spaces, with open windows, are safer. “Remember that half or more of infections are spread from people before they have symptoms. Rapid testing before gathering can help identify people with COVID-19 early.”
While early findings from South Africa provided hope that the variant might cause less severe illness than Delta, emerging data from Europe suggests disease severity may be similar to Delta’s.
“It’s important to recognize that we do not yet have a clear picture of the severity of illness Omicron causes compared to Delta,” said Duchin.
Relatively high rates of vaccination in King County will help blunt the effects of Omicron. 86% of people 16 and over have completed their shots. About two-thirds of individuals 65 and older have been boosted, though less than half of people under 50.
But there’s still a substantial unvaccinated population. About 160,000 adults in King County have not received a shot at all, and 250,000 have not yet completed their series. “Omicron is going to find many of these people,” said Duchin.
And even if the variant turns out to cause milder illness, the sheer number of people who are projected to become infected in a short period of time may cause a surge at healthcare facilities.
Hospitals have been operating at full or overflow capacity for months in many areas of the state, said Santiago Neme, medical director of UW Medical Center Northwest. “This has to do with staffing shortages, but also an increase of transfers from other areas of the state of Washington and neighboring state hospitals that are dealing with much higher rates, partly due to lower vaccination,” and less stringent masking, he said.
In a media briefing on Monday, Taya Briley, vice president and general counsel for the Washington State Hospital Association, said state hospitals are already “bursting at the seams,” according to a report from KUOW. Many patients are stuck in hospital beds because of roadblocks transferring them to skilled nursing homes or assisted living facilities, she said.
Many employers are in a holding pattern as Omicron emerges, and Seattle-area tech companies have a variety of plans in place. Docusign, Apple, Lyft, Ford, Uber, Google, and others over the past week have pushed back many previously-announced plans to get back to work in person. Some companies such as Microsoft had already given up on predicting a timeframe for full reopening of offices.
Duchin advises workplaces to take all the precautions they can. “Schools may also see impacts from cases in staff and students after the winter break,” he added.
Boosters are in high demand now, but King County has been increasing its supply of vaccine. The ten county-operated sites have bumped up vaccination capacity by 60% in the past month.
Research on effectiveness of vaccines, severity of infection and other questions is ongoing. One early dataset from the United Kingdom suggests that two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine were roughly 35% effective at preventing symptomatic infection with Omicron but boosting with a third dose bumped that up to 75% effectiveness.
Duchin also advises people who have had past COVID-19 infection to get their shot, as they are at risk.
The quick sampling method used by UW virology, called SGTF, enables detection of a mutation found in Omicron. Almost all of the Omicron-positive samples subject to verification by sequencing so far have been positive for the variant, said Alex Greninger, assistant director of the UW virology lab.
The rise in Omicron detected by the UW tracks closely with numbers in Connecticut, which is conducting similar surveillance. New York is experiencing a rapid COVID-19 surge and a spike in Omicron.
“Omicron is throwing a new challenge at us at a most inconvenient time,” said Duchin.
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