The University of Washington will test a random sample of 7,000 people across Washington state for COVID-19 and related antibodies multiple times over eight months in a new effort to better understand the spread of the disease.
The approach is intended to provide a more statistically accurate picture of COVID-19 than existing testing, which includes a disproportionate number of people who believe they may have been exposed to the disease, potentially skewing the results due to self-selection. The study, announced this morning by the Washington state Department of Health and UW Medicine, will be funded by a $3.4 million grant from the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation.
Researchers will find participants from communities across the state, including people from rural and urban areas, with an emphasis on ensuring full representation across diverse socioeconomic and racial groups. Participants will first receive a COVID-19 diagnostic test, to determine if they currently have COVID-19, followed by three serologic tests to detect antibodies indicating a past infection.
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While some other states are conducting or planning similar studies, Washington’s study will be one of the most comprehensive, if not the most comprehensive, studies of its kind, in terms of the number of samples collected, as well as the geographic, racial and ethnic diversity, said Dr. Keith Jerome, head of the Virology Division at UW Medicine, in a briefing with reporters.
The level of funding enables a “very, very robust study,” he said.
Officials expect the first results this fall. State officials say the study will help to inform future decisions on safety guidelines and other initiatives to slow and stop the disease.
Another goal is to determine the extent to which antibodies protect people from contracting the disease a second time.
“We know the antibodies tell you in a very reliable way whether you’ve had the infection,” Jerome said. “But one thing we all hope is that the antibodies also mean that you have at least some protection from the virus and from future infections. And we’re optimistic that this study may help provide data that tells us whether that’s true.”
The announcement comes amid a surge in cases in the state, coinciding with an increase in testing, six months since the state launched its COVID-19 response.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Washington state rose 71% over the past week, reaching a new weekly high of more than 6,800 reported cases. In their latest situation report, scientists and Washington state public health officials call the growth in cases an “explosive situation” and “a matter of utmost urgency.”
Deaths and hospitalizations are significantly lower than they were during the prior peak of the disease. That difference is “really encouraging,” but the increase in cases is still cause for concern, said Dr. Kathy Lofy, the state health officer and chief science officer for Washington state, during the briefing with reporters this morning.
“We’re seeing less severe disease than we saw earlier on, so I think that we have been pretty successful in protecting those in our populations that are at highest risk for severe disease,” Lofy said. “What we’re seeing now is more disease around younger individuals. We’re very concerned that this disease that’s mostly focused in younger individuals is going to spread out to all of the age groups. And we’re very concerned that that will lead to more hospitalizations and deaths.”
