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Players come down the 18th fairway at Chambers Bay on Wednesday.

One formula says Hideki Matsuyama will win; the other calculates a Rory McIlroy victory.

PGATour.com offered up some analytical predictions for the 115th U.S. Open, which kicks off on Thursday and features 156 of the world’s top golfers teeing it up during the first of four rounds at Chambers Bay in University Place, Wash.

Writer Bill Cooney looked at three categories that specifically pertain to the links-style course: Scrambling, total driving, and proximity to the hole. After crunching, his formula says that Japanese star Matsuyama — who has five top-five finishes this year already — will take first place.

Columbia Business School professor and author of Every Shot Counts Mark Broadie, on the other hand, applied a weighted formula that analyzed a “player’s lowest tournament adjusted scoring average in the past eight events” and “a player’s adjusted scoring average in the prior 36 Tour events.” Broadie weighted the 36 prior events at 65 percent and the eight most-recent at 35 percent.

In the end, his math said that McIlroy will win, taking home his second U.S. Open and fifth major championship.

Rory McIllroy chips onto the 18th green during Wednesday's practice round.
Rory McIllroy chips onto the 18th green during Wednesday’s practice round.

Vegas agrees, as McIlroy is favorite to win the tournament with 7-to-1 odds.

In our weekly sports tech newsletter that was sent out today, I predicted a win for 2015 Masters champion Jordan Spieth. No, I didn’t use math, but I think his putting consistency will help Spieth win his second-straight major.

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