Forces of nature greater than the tech industry could be responsible for Seattle’s next population boom.
That’s if you believe the “climate refugee” (or perhaps more accurately climate migrant) theory that became the subject of a recent study, prepared for the University of Washington by the Climate Impacts Group. The study’s findings, which we’ll explore more below, were published this week in a paper by master’s student Alison Saperstein.
But before we dissect its legitimacy, let’s talk a little about where this theory came from.
As UW blogger Hannah Hickey notes, the climate migrant theory started generating media buzz a couple years ago. Seattle-based environmental news site Grist named its home city the number one place to be during global warming. The L.A. Times prophesied migration, linking it with the cohorts displaced by the Dust Bowl in the 1930s and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The New York Times also got in on the action, suggesting Alaska and the Northwest to ride out our planet’s growing pains.
Environmental economics professor Matthew Kahn predicted “environmental refugees” would result from rising extreme temperatures and weather in his book, Climatopolis.
In a blog post, UW atmospheric sciences professor Cliff Mass argued that the impact of rising sea levels on low-lying coastal regions, diminished water availability in the south and southwest, heat waves in the central states, and more intense tropical storms in the east and southeast will make the Pacific Northwest one of the few attractive U.S. regions to live.
But the Climate Impacts Group behind UW’s recent study says the issue is more nuanced than the media’s portrayal suggests.
“It is an oversimplification to assume that because of climate change impacts in one region in the country we will see a mass migration of people to the Northwest, but what we may see is just that climate starts becoming part of that equation,” Climate Impacts outreach specialist Lara Whitley Binder told GeekWire.
Binder’s sentiments echo Saperstein’s paper, which found that climate stresses are just one part of the multi-causal decision to move. She argues that it’s reasonable to assume some climate-related migration will occur but how much is difficult to measure, as migration is also influenced by economic and social factors.
In an interview with GeekWire, Mass also said that the media’s narrative is an oversimplification. He expects some migration but doesn’t foresee major populations shifting. He believes preparedness, not migration, should be the focal point of the discussion.
“I think the most important thing is not the migration, but is the adaptation,” he said. “The most important issue is, with what we expect to happen, what will we do to prepare? That’s the real issue. Not how many people are going to move.”
