In the U.S., some 43% of the population has received at least one COVID-19 vaccination dose. And as these numbers rise, the Centers for Diseases Control and Prevention this week announced updated guidelines for masks and social distancing, relaxing the rules for mask wearing outdoors for people who are fully vaccinated.
That’s good news — or is it? As with many things COVID, not everyone agrees.
Washington’s Secretary of Health Dr. Umair Shah welcomed the CDC update as version 2.0 of COVID safety guidance. It matches our evolving understanding of how the virus spreads, he said, while also dangling a carrot of incentive for those deciding whether to accept the vaccine.
“Even as the need for caution continues, we’re seeing the benefits of getting fully vaccinated,” Shah said during a media briefing on Wednesday.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, a professor with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), a research center at the University of Washington, is of a very different mind.
“The issue is the messaging,” Mokdad said. We want to encourage people to get vaccinated to protect their health, to protect their community and to end the spread of COVID, he said. “To link the vaccine to mask wearing is not what we want.”
This is a mistake @CDCgov. We cannot stop using masks until we reach herd immunity. #COVID19 is a dangerous and stubborn virus. 1/3https://t.co/KY7eQgi1CM
— Ali H. Mokdad (@AliHMokdad) April 27, 2021
Mokdad is concerned that the CDC message is confusing, advising vaccinated people to still wear masks outdoors in crowded situations, which requires a judgement call. It’s also difficult to know in public who is and isn’t vaccinated, adding more uncertainty. And while the guidance might work for the summer, if new variants come raging back this winter, the rules will need to change again. Add to that the fact that while the COVID vaccines are highly effective, some vaccinated people will still catch the virus, though they’ll most likely have milder symptoms.
The new CDC guidelines, Mokdad said, give “a false sense of security.”
There’s plenty more news on the COVID front — here’s the latest:
Calming of the fourth wave?
Beginning in mid-March, a fourth surge of COVID infections began hitting Washington and the U.S. The state is reporting about 1,400 new cases per day on average, a number that’s above last summer’s peak but well below the rates during winter’s third wave. But now signs are emerging that the crest has peaked, said Dr. Scott Lindquist, acting state health officer for the Washington State Department of Health.
“This whole fourth wave business looks to be — and this is a bit premature — but it looks like it’s starting to plateau a little bit,” Lindquist said.
IHME does extensive modeling of COVID infections and Mokdad agreed that the rates are flattening for the state and country. “We are on our way down,” he said.
Rapid rise in vaccinations
Since the first COVID-19 vaccine was approved in December, Washington state has dramatically ramped up the rate that which shots are getting into arms. It took 53 days to administer the first 1 million shots, while the most recent 1 million doses were injected in just 15 days.
More than 5 million doses have been given in the state to people age 16 and older.
Shah said that he hopes that children age 12 to 15 years old will get the green light for vaccination in the next few weeks or in a couple of months.
Potential roll back to Phase 2
The crest might be calming, but infection rates are high and hospitalizations have been on the rise for weeks. Given these stats, officials with Public Health – Seattle & King County warned that the county, which includes Seattle, Redmond and Bellevue, is likely to roll back to the tighter restrictions under Phase 2, as was reported by The Seattle Times.
Gov. Jay Inslee will announce updates to the phases on Tuesday.
Three counties scattered across Washington returned to Phase 2 earlier this month. Regions in Phase 3 are allowed to operate retail stores and restaurants indoors at 50% capacity, but that drops to 25% under Phase 2, among other restrictions.
Tracking vaccine demand
There has been a recent decrease in the U.S. vaccination rate nationwide, but Washington’s officials say they’re not yet seeing a decline — though the demand for appointments seems to be lessening. Shah said the state is closely watching what’s happening with vaccine appointments.
There are concerns that the slowdown could be a result of vaccine hesitancy, but the temporary pause on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine due to extremely rare blood clots could have played a role as well, experts said.
Another factor could be access to vaccinations, which DOH officials said they’re working to address by making it easier to get the shots. King County and other areas offer in-home vaccinations for some. Officials in Washington’s Pierce County upped the fun factor by pairing a shot with a taco and other food truck fare. In Vancouver, B.C., healthcare providers in a community with a large number of residents experiencing homelessness are offering $5 for people getting vaccinated.
???? ???? ???? Get your COVID-19 Vaccination at the @TacomaDome – NO REGISTRATION REQUIRED!
⚠️ The site is open daily from 12 – 8 p.m.
???????????????? If you're hungry while you're there, we now have local food trucks!
(1/2) pic.twitter.com/xFYFFruJcc
— Pierce County, Wash. (@PierceCo) April 27, 2021
Calculating vaccine benefits
In an effort to understand how the vaccine is performing, Washington officials looked at the health of people 65 and over — a group that has been eligible for the vaccine for a longer period. They found that seniors who are unvaccinated are being hospitalized for COVID at a rate that is nearly 10-times higher than those who are fully vaccinated.
The CDC Wednesday released similar data, reporting that fully vaccinated seniors were 94% less likely to be hospitalized due to the virus.
At the same time, hospital leaders in Washington say that the current rise in hospitalizations is being driven by infections in younger people, according to the Seattle Times.
In King County, people age 20 to 29 are currently infected with the virus at more than twice the rate of other age groups.
An eye on variants
Washington continues to be a leader in the U.S. in tracking the variants of the virus that causes COVID. The United Kingdom variant, or B.1.1.7, now makes up roughly 60 to 75% of the infections in Washington, DOH officials said. The B.1.1.7 is more transmissible, and while earlier reports suggested that the variant could cause more severe illness, newer research indicates that’s not necessarily the case.
“It’s like a bully and knocks everybody out,” Mokdad said of B.1.1.7 compared to other variants.
The variant is thought to be playing a significant role in the spread of COVID in India, which is in a crisis in its fight against the virus. Indian health officials are also pointing a finger at a local variant called B.1.617. Reliable data is hard to come by for the region, but the New York Times reports there are more than 350,000 new daily infections in India.
