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Apple’s iPhone and Mac businesses are humming along nicely this holiday season, but financial analyst Shaw Wu sees some storm clouds ahead for the iPad. The analyst at Stern Agee cut his estimate for Apple’s tablet computer from 15 million to 13.5 million units for the current quarter, noting that production “appears a little light,” reports Barron’s.

One of the reasons for the estimate reduction was competition from’s Kindle Fire, a tablet computer which was released last month at the low price point of $199. He also noted that some Apple customers are opting for the Macbook Air over the iPad.

While Wu cut his forecast on the iPad, he raised it for the iPhone. In the report, he estimated sales of 28 million iPhone this quarter, up from his previous estimate of 26 million.

Sales of the Kindle Fire have been strong, but is not releasing specifics. On Black Friday, Target said that the Kindle Fire was its best selling tablet, outselling the iPad.

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