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Ahead of the Curve: Predicting baseball, politics and everything in between. Presented by signature speaker, Nate Silver.

04/25/2014 @ 7:00 pm - 8:30 pm

| $5

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA.

About Nate Silver

Nate Silver has become today’s leading statistician through his innovative analyses of political polling. He first gained national attention during the 2008 presidential election, when he correctly predicted the results of the primaries and the presidential winner in 49 states. In 2012, he called 50 of 50 states.

Nate is partnering with ESPN to launch a new version of his award-winning website FiveThirtyEight, which will apply his trademark analysis to politics, sports, big data, and more. This new FiveThirtyEight allows Nate and his team to go deeper into a wider range of areas than he covered at the New York Times. Nate’s approach to thinking probabilistically is one of the great ideas of our time. In addition to his work on FiveThirtyEight, Nate will appear on ESPN as an on-air commentator.

In a sense, Nate is returning to his roots: before he came to politics, he established his credentials as an analyst of baseball statistics. He developed a widely acclaimed system called PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), which predicts player performance, career development, and seasonal winners and losers. He is the author of a series of books on baseball statistics, which include Mind GameBaseball Between the Numbers, and It Ain’t Over ’til It’s Over.

His newest book, The Signal and The Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail — But Some Don’t, is a New York Times bestseller. Data-based predictions underpin a growing sector of critical fields, from political polling and hurricane watches to the stock market and even the war on terror. That means it’s important to ask — what kind of predictions can we trust? What methods do the most reliable forecasters use? What sorts of things can be predicted — and what can’t? Nate takes us on a tour of modern prediction science, uncovering a surprising connection among humility, uncertainty and good results. It’s an essential read for anyone interested in how data can be used to understand the future.

Nate has written for ESPNSports IllustratedSlateNew York Sun, and The New York Times. His work has been reported in such publications as The New York TimesNewsweekThe Huffington Post, and Vanity Fair.

He has been honored by a series of accolades. Most recently, Fast Company named Nate No. 1 of the100 Most Creative People in Business 2013 and Creativity magazine listed him in its Creativity 50 2013. He has also appeared in TIME‘s 100 Most Influential People of 2009 and Rolling Stone‘s 100 Agents of Change. won Best Political Coverage in the 2008 Weblog Awards.

NOTE: As a courtesy, the University of Washington will attempt to offer standby seating to the Graduate School Public Lecture Series for those who did not or could not register in advance for a lecture. Standby seating is not guaranteed, and the UW reserves the right to amend the standby seating policy at any time with no further notice.

You do not need to be an alum of the University of Washington to attend or register.

As a part of our Signature Speaker series, there will be a $5.00 registration fee for members of the general public to attend this lecture.

Powered in partnership with the UW Alumni Association



7:00 pm - 8:30 pm
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UW Meany Hall
4140 George Washington Ln NE
Seattle, WA 98105 United States
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(206) 543-4880